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A Great Month You Can't Explain Is Just a Lucky Month

Hope is a crappy management strategy and if you can't name why revenue is up, you can't make it happen again.

A founder I coach hopped on our call this week and excitedly told me sales were up 80% year over year. Awesome, right?

I asked the obvious question: what's driving it?

He hadn't looked.

This is a guy who has spent the last year building out a proper data layer specifically so he could answer questions like this. He's got an AI that can query the whole thing in plain English. He just hadn't bothered to ask it.

So we asked it together. Business line number one, up 50%. Business line number two, flat. Some providers slammed, others not. Now we have something to chew on. Is it referrals? Is it a specific provider? Is it existing customers buying more time, or is it net new?

We still don't fully know, but at least now we're hunting.

When you have a great month and you don't know why, you don't actually have a great month. You have a lucky month. And luck has an expiration date.

If you got a big PR hit, can you replicate that? Maybe? But you sure as hell won't replicate it if you don't start trying. If your answer is "man, I don't know, sales are just up," then your strategy is hope. And hope doesn't make payroll in November when seasonality kicks you in the teeth.

The founders who scale are the ones who get curious during the good months, not just the bad ones. A bad month forces an audit. A good month should too.

Go look at your last great month. Can you name what specifically worked?

If not, you can't recreate that success on demand.

Eric Marcoullier · Obvious Startup Advice
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